News and Insights
DETECTING WEAK SIGNALS, OUTLIERS AND FUZZY FUTURES
“We didn’t see it coming” is a term often used by decision makers, and when supported by the justification that “it” was a “Black Swan” event, is deployed to rationalize failure to act soon enough in response to earlier warning signals. Along with behavioural traits such as amnesia, denial, blind spots and hubris, the inability to spot such signals has also been put down to limited awareness and application of methods which can help identify “weak signals” and outliers. Operating not just as discrete, isolated phenomena, but in the form of symbiotic clustering – a variety of asymmetric signals of different strengths can merge to reveal a major change impactor. Such phenomena can be in the form of future (or more specifically “what if”) scenarios and/or new technologies, which if not identified in time, can lead decision makers to fail to respond soon enough to disruptive outcomes. This paper offers an innovative approach with application of two but oft neglected methods which can help isolate signals having the potential to trigger future discontinuities, disruptive phenomena and events, and
thus majorly improve “weak signal” identification – and support decision making under uncertainty.”- click HERE to download a copy
COMING SOON - BREAKING DOWN THE "FUZZY FRONT END" OF R&D
With pharmaceutical research undergoing somewhat of a renaissance there has never been so much pressure on the “fuzzy front end” of pharmaceutical innovation. Much of this growth has been driven by smaller organisations leveraging new and innovative technologies generating more and more complex data. Today pharmaceutical executives have to make investment decision under this cloud of uncertainty, risk and complexity and traditional tools and portfolio management processes are simply not up to the task.
Healthcare affordability and the value of pharmaceutical products is a ‘wicked problem’ where facts are uncertain, values in dispute, stakes high and decisions urgent. Mounting economic pressures and biotechnology advances have made market access and pricing the focus of a socio-political debate. Drug pricing regularly makes headlines, with patient advocacy organisations, medical communities and political leaders weighing into the discussions. Both government and private payers around the world have tightened coverage requirements as drug budgets cannot measure up to the increasing healthcare needs of an aging population. The mandate is that life sciences firms provide compelling evidence of both the health benefit (the value) and the financial impact (the affordability) of treatments and therapies. The question is how do you select a therapeutic modality for development on its promise to pay in ever changing and a cost-constrained world? - click HERE to download a copy
In the immediate wake of the Brexit referendum result, prominent Brexiteers postulated that the process to disengage from the EU would be a relatively simple matter. Yet it is increasingly apparent to our negotiators that the process is highly complex and fraught and that the earlier, hoped for, timetable has been delayed to the extent that a situation akin to an “impasse” has been reached with few signs that the log-jam will be unblocked soon. - click HERE to download a copy
Recent situations in the UK and the wider world, such as Brexit, the Trump Presidency, the NHS hacking and security issues emanating from the recent UK terrorist events are evidence of forecast-driven decision making being challenged by complexity and uncertainty combined with limited foresight. Indeed, organisations, their senior management and policy makers, have had to adjust their thinking that not everything can be determined by allocating a probability based estimate. - click HERE to download a copy
Click here to find the schedules referred to as Appendices 3 to 7 linked to Chapter 7 in our new publication "UNCERTAINTY DECONSTRUCTED –TRANSFORMING TRADITIONAL PERCEPTIONS - A Guidebook for Decision Support Practitioners” to be published by Springer in April 2022.
Watch our founder, Dr Bruce Garvey, discuss how Fibonacci works
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Using MA for PESTLE analysis
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