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News and Insights

DETECTING WEAK SIGNALS, OUTLIERS AND FUZZY FUTURES

“We didn’t see it coming” is a term often used by decision makers, and when supported by the justification that “it” was a “Black Swan” event, is deployed to rationalize failure to act soon enough in response to earlier warning signals. Along with behavioural traits such as amnesia, denial, blind spots and hubris, the inability to spot such signals has also been put down to limited awareness and application of methods which can help identify “weak signals” and outliers. Operating not just as discrete, isolated phenomena, but in the form of symbiotic clustering – a variety of asymmetric signals of different strengths can merge to reveal a major change impactor. Such phenomena can be in the form of future (or more specifically “what if”) scenarios and/or new technologies, which if not identified in time, can lead decision makers to fail to respond soon enough to disruptive outcomes. This paper offers an innovative approach with application of two but oft neglected methods which can help isolate signals having the potential to trigger future discontinuities, disruptive phenomena and events, and
thus majorly improve “weak signal” identification – and support decision making under uncertainty.”- click
HERE to download a copy

COMING SOON - BREAKING DOWN THE "FUZZY FRONT END" OF R&D

With pharmaceutical research undergoing somewhat of a renaissance there has never been so much pressure on the “fuzzy front end” of pharmaceutical innovation.  Much of this growth has been driven by smaller organisations leveraging new and innovative technologies generating more and more complex data.  Today pharmaceutical executives have to make investment decision under this cloud of uncertainty, risk and complexity and traditional tools and portfolio management processes are simply not up to the task.

Healthcare affordability and the value of pharmaceutical products is a ‘wicked problem’ where facts are uncertain, values in dispute, stakes high and decisions urgent. Mounting economic pressures and biotechnology advances have made market access and pricing the focus of a socio-political debate. Drug pricing regularly makes headlines, with patient advocacy organisations, medical communities and political leaders weighing into the discussions. Both government and private payers around the world have tightened coverage requirements as drug budgets cannot measure up to the increasing healthcare needs of an aging population. The mandate is that life sciences firms provide compelling evidence of both the health benefit (the value) and the financial impact (the affordability) of treatments and therapies. The question is how do you select a therapeutic modality for development on its promise to pay in ever changing and a cost-constrained world? - click HERE to download a copy

In the immediate wake of the Brexit referendum result, prominent Brexiteers postulated that the process to disengage from the EU would be a relatively simple matter. Yet it is increasingly apparent to our negotiators that the process is highly complex and fraught and that the earlier, hoped for, timetable has been delayed to the extent that a situation akin to an “impasse” has been reached with few signs that the log-jam will be unblocked soon. - click HERE to download a copy

Recent situations in the UK and the wider world, such as Brexit, the Trump Presidency, the NHS hacking and security issues emanating from the recent UK terrorist events are evidence of forecast-driven decision making being challenged by complexity and uncertainty combined with limited foresight. Indeed, organisations, their senior management and policy makers, have had to adjust their thinking that not everything can be determined by allocating a probability based estimate. - click HERE to download a copy

Multimedia

Watch our founder, Dr Bruce Garvey, discuss how Fibonacci works

 

Introduction to MA

 

Fibonacci in Action

 

Fibonacci Software

 

Weak Signals

 

Meet the Team

Using MA for PESTLE analysis

 

The Strategy Foresight team regularly participte in various conferences and training workshops.  Come and meet the team at the following and see how we can work together: 

Using Integrated Methods for Decision Support when Addressing Uncertainty, Complexity and the Unexpected

10 September 2019 - Birmingham - click HERE

The course will demonstrate how there is no one-method-fits-all when addressing the uncertain ‘fuzzy end’ of the risk spectrum. The main rationale is to show how a toolkit of methods can be deployed in an integrated manner to address uncertainty, complexity and the unexpected.

You will cover:

  • a range of methods and tools which can be deployed in an integrated manner when dealing with various phases of uncertainty;

  • method trials to see which sets work best for the problems being faced by an organisation;

  • using different types of supporting software; and

  • enhancing the deployment of generic and flexible methods.

Academic Publications

Strategy Foresight founders are thought leaders in decision analytics.  You can find some of our latest academic publications at: 

New directions in computational, combinational and structural creativity - click HERE

Using morphological analysis to tackle uncertainty at the design phase for a safety critical application - click HERE

 

Exploring new approaches to improve hand hygiene monitoring in healthcare - click HERE

SWOT analysis using general morphological analysis  - click HERE

Design as an Unstructured Problem: New Methods to Help Reduce Uncertainty—A Practitioner Perspective- click HERE